A partner of the Dnipropetrovsk Investment Agency, the Ukrainian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, continues its series of monthly studies, the Business Barometer. It represents the views of companies and entrepreneurs, presenting their expectations about changes in the business environment in the upcoming month compared to the previous one.

The research is based on a study that takes into account the performance indicators of respondents in key sectors of the economy, including manufacturing, construction, trade, and services. The study has been adapted to the needs of members and partners of Ukrainian Chamber of Commerce and Industry. A special aspect of the Business Barometer is the inclusion of specialised industry questions and an analysis of the export situation, which provides a dynamic view of the business climate in the Ukrainian market.

In December 2024, the overall Business Barometer Index declined to 39 points, marking a decrease of ⇩-0.4 points compared to the previous month. This is the lowest value recorded since the start of regular observations in October 2023.

Negative expectations prevail across all sectors without exception. The sectoral sub-indices of the Barometer remain below the neutral threshold of 50 points. A moderate easing of negative expectations was observed in the trade (44.8⇧+3.8) and services (43.0⇧+2.5) sectors, though pessimistic sentiment continues to outweigh optimism. For the first time since April 2024, the Construction Sector Barometer dropped below 50 points (47.0⇩-5.9). The manufacturing sector shows the most cautious outlook, with the number of skeptics increasing at an accelerated pace (32.9⇩-4.1)

Regardless of business size, negative expectations dominate across all categories. Only medium-sized enterprises showed a slight reduction in pessimistic sentiment (39.8⇧+1.8). In contrast, micro, small, and especially large enterprises reported an increase in respondents uncertain about economic improvement (41.9⇩-0.4, 36.4⇩-1.5 and 35.0⇩-7.2, respectively).

Exporters’ outlook aligns with the general business trend, reflecting a slight intensification of pessimistic expectations (38.9⇩-0.6).

Survey responses on the impact of banking restrictions on business transfers reveal that the vast majority of businesses (over 80%) anticipate some degree of negative consequences. Specifically, 31% of respondents foresee complications in client relationships, 28% expect limitations in account management, 16% anticipate increased administrative burdens, and 6% fear a loss of competitiveness. Only 19% of respondents believe that additional restrictions will not affect their business.

The December 2024 report is available here.

Monthly, in addition to the regular survey, respondents can answer the “hot” question of the month and contact the hot line of the Ukrainian Chamber of Commerce and Industry.

The survey is conducted in verified chatbots on Telegram and Viber and takes only 2 minutes.

Джерело: https://ucci.org.ua