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Based on the KPMG M&A Radar 2025: Ukraine (February 2026) report, the number of transactions exceeding $5 million increased by 26% to 63 deals, while total disclosed deal value reached $1.2 billion (+17% year-on-year).
Regaining Momentum After the 2022 Decline
Following a sharp drop in activity in 2022, the market gradually stabilized in 2023–2024 and showed clear acceleration in 2025. The average deal size remained stable at $34 million, reflecting investors’ willingness to pursue opportunities even amid elevated security risks.
At the same time, analysts note declining transparency: the share of transactions with disclosed value fell from 64% in 2024 to 57% in 2025, largely due to the higher proportion of domestic transactions, which are traditionally less publicly disclosed.
Dominance of Domestic Investors
The key feature of 2025 was the strengthened role of Ukrainian capital. Of the 63 transactions, 40 were domestic, with total disclosed value amounting to $671 million.
Domestic investors accounted for more than 60% of total deal volume and over half of total disclosed value. Eight out of the ten largest transactions of the year also involved Ukrainian investors.
Top 3 Domestic Sectors:
The most notable growth occurred in the technology sector: while only one domestic tech transaction worth $10 million was recorded in 2024, 2025 saw six such deals totaling $210 million.
Largest Deals of the Year
The market remained highly concentrated, with approximately 50% of total disclosed deal value attributed to just three transactions exceeding $100 million.
These included:
Foreign Capital: Cautious but Present
The number of inbound transactions remained stable at 13 deals (the same as in 2024), although total disclosed value declined to $232 million (-59% year-on-year).
More than 90% of inbound deal value was driven by investors from Europe and North America.
Key inbound sectors:
Analysts note that foreign investors remained cautious in the first half of the year, but interest increased noticeably in the second half of 2025, with several potential deals carried over into 2026.
Ukrainian Capital Expands Abroad
Outbound deal value surged to $329 million across 10 transactions, compared to $85 million in 2024.
In addition to MHP’s landmark transaction, Ukrainian companies actively invested in IT, energy, and fintech abroad. Notably, Diligent Capital Partners led a $12 million funding round in Philippine neobank Tonik.
This reflects the emergence of a new wave of Ukrainian transnational players.
Macroeconomic Context
Ukraine’s economy grew by 1.8% in 2025 despite ongoing wartime risks. At the same time, fiscal stability continued to rely heavily on sustained international financial support.
Globally, the M&A market also rebounded, with total announced deal value increasing by more than 40% year-on-year. This creates conditions for a gradual return of foreign capital to Ukraine.
Outlook for 2026
Analysts expect continued organic growth in 2026. Key drivers may include:
The market is entering a phase of structural transformation. Investors who enter early may gain a strategic advantage in the forthcoming wave of post-war reconstruction.
Джерело: https://inventure.com.ua
