Ukraine exported almost 1.7 million tons of corn in the last month of the year as of December 23. Experts expect the total volume for the month to exceed 2 million tons.

Corn prices are stable at $205-207/ton on a CPT basis, and there is a potential to reach $210-215/ton in January. The key factor that may affect further price growth is weather conditions in Brazil and Argentina.

“The corn market is in a kind of “golden period”. In January, any importer who wants to receive supplies is forced to turn to Ukraine, since American corn is already sold out. This creates conditions for sellers to dictate the price. But it is important to remember that in February-March we may face competitive pressure on the European market due to cheaper American corn,” PUSK analysts note.

Ukrainian corn remains the main player in the European market, while the US actively exports to Latin American countries and Mexico. However, the price difference between Ukrainian and American corn on the European market is about $10/t in favor of American products. According to forecasts, in January the market will be sensitive to news about the sowing campaign of the second crop in Brazil and the state of crops in Argentina, where there are already problems with moisture.

“Over the past 10 years, only twice has the corn market been stable in January and February without significant price fluctuations. Therefore, the probability of receiving higher prices during this period is quite high. But already in April – May, corn may turn into a scarce commodity, which will again create the prerequisites for price growth,” analysts add.

Source: https://agroportal.ua/