As G20 ministers and central bank governors gather in Bali this week, they face a global economic outlook that has “darkened significantly”, the head of the International Monetary Fund has said.

Kristalina Georgieva hinted the IMF will downgrade its expectations for global economic growth this month, saying the outlook remains “extremely uncertain” and blaming the war in Ukraine, higher than expected inflation, and the ongoing Covid pandemic.

In a statement, she said:

It is going to be a tough 2022—and possibly an even tougher 2023, with increased risk of recession.

The human tragedy of the war in Ukraine has worsened. So, too, has its economic impact especially through commodity price shocks that are slowing growth and exacerbating a cost-of-living crisis that affects hundreds of millions of people—and especially poor people who cannot afford to feed their families. And it’s only getting worse.

G20 finance ministers and central bank governors are preparing to meet in Bali where they will discuss the global economy, including food security, and the impact of the war in Ukraine.

Georgieva called for “decisive action and strong international cooperation, led by the G20”.

Indonesia’s central bank governor Perry Warjiyo is cautious about the prospect of reaching an agreement over the way forward, saying: “We hope for the best, but of course prepare for the worst”.

Georgieva said that inflation has “broadened beyond food and energy prices” in that has led many central banks to increase the cost of borrowing, something she said will “need to continue”.