Since the first year of the war, Poland has become Ukraine’s main logistics and transit center for exports and imports, as well as a supplier of critical products for the functioning of the state and the entire economy. Partly thanks to this, along with the contributions of migrant workers and refugees, Poland is showing economic growth above the European average.

Mutual trade in goods

The volume and structure of trade in goods between Ukraine and Poland has undergone huge changes in recent years, catalysed by war. In 2022, the first year of the war, Ukrainian exports to Poland rose by 27% y/y, reaching $6.7 billion. This increase was driven by the re-routing of trade flows after the closure of Black Sea ports. Later, due to the opening of the grain corridor and then the maritime export corridor in August 2023, exports to Poland expectedly declined – by 28.6% y/y and 1% y/y in 2023 and 2024, respectively. However, in the first nine months of 2025, the growth trend resumed – the volume of Ukrainian exports to Poland increased by 3% y/y – to $3.7 bln.

In turn, imports of goods from Poland to Ukraine have been showing a steady upward trend since the start of the war. From the pre-war level of $5 bln in 2021, this figure increased by 40% by 2024 and reached $7 bln. In January-September this year, imports of goods from Poland increased by another 12% y/y – to $5.7 bln.

The growth is explained by the fact that Poland has become the main logistical and transit hub for Ukrainian trade with the EU and a source of priority supplies in the conditions of war. To a small extent, this is due to the fact that some production facilities of Ukrainian companies have been relocated to Polish territory.

While trade in goods was nearly balanced in 2021, by 2024 Ukraine faced a $2.3 billion trade deficit with Poland. This reflects the transformation of the Ukrainian economy under war conditions: on the one hand, the critical need for imports for the survival of the economy and the front, on the other hand, the return of Ukrainian exports to the usual maritime routes, the ban on agro-products to Poland and limited export opportunities (to a lesser extent) due to the war.

For the Ukrainian economy, trade with Poland and the transit of goods through its territory is a matter of survival in war conditions. Without Polish logistics routes, Ukrainian exports would have dropped catastrophically in the first year of the war. Therefore, the existing deficit of trade in goods with Poland is not fatal for our economy, as understandable economic reasons cause it.

Ukraine supplies Poland with industrial raw materials and agricultural products to a large extent. If in the first year of the war Ukraine was able to redirect large volumes of corn, wheat, rapeseed to the Polish market, then in 2023 Poland began to restrict Ukrainian agricultural exports. Among the products of agro-industrial complex and agro-processing, oilcake, as well as sunflower, soybean, and rapeseed oils remained the export leaders. Among the products with high added value are cable products, furniture and woodworking products, steel products. In 2024, iron and steel products accounted for 28% of Ukraine’s total exports to Poland, totaling $1.3 billion. This included $484 million worth of iron ore.

After the outbreak of war, the structure of Polish imports to Ukraine changed dramatically. Poland began to fill Ukraine’s needs in petroleum products, liquefied gas and war materials, which were critical in the conditions of the war (item «Other goods»). Poland also started supplying goods that became critical for key sectors of the Ukrainian economy due to the war. This includes fertilizers and agricultural machinery for the agri-industrial sector, and coke for the steel industry.

Among civilian products we can mention fertilizers, cars and trucks, machinery, tools and equipment, industrial raw materials and consumer goods. At the same time, road transport was largely used for military needs. In general, Polish imports to Ukraine have a much higher added value than Ukrainian exports.

Economic benefits for Poland

Cooperation with Ukraine has turned Poland into a key player in Eastern Europe and the main logistical hub to support Ukraine. However, Poland derives quite tangible economic benefits from its active trade relations with Ukraine:

1. Expansion of regional influence. Cooperation with Ukraine strengthens Poland’s position as a key partner in Eastern Europe, reinforcing its role in the European Union in economic, energy, and security matters. Poland is the main logistical hub for military aid deliveries to Ukraine.
2. Economic development and solving the problem of staff shortage. In 2022-2025, more than 100 thousand individual entrepreneurs and companies were registered by Ukrainians in Poland. Moreover, in this matter our compatriots have unquestionable leadership – in 2024 more than 70% of new companies were opened by Ukrainians. About 800 thousand Ukrainians are officially employed in Poland, helping to address labor shortages and even offset some of the country’s demographic challenges. According to Deloitte estimates, the contribution of refugees from Ukraine to Poland’s GDP in 2024 is estimated at 2.7% (total effect: production, consumption, taxes). Moreover, a portion of the EU funds allocated to support Ukraine ends up in the Polish economy through transit and services.
3. Expansion of the sales market. In 2024, Poland had a surplus in goods trade with Ukraine of $2.3 billion against a deficit of $250 million in 2021. This indicates that Polish businesses have expanded their markets in Ukraine compared to the pre-war situation and diversified their sources of raw materials and products. In reality, because of differences in how foreign trade transactions are recorded statistically, Poland’s economic gains from exports to Ukraine may be significantly higher than what Ukrainian customs data shows. According to Eurostat, Poland exported $14.2 billion worth of goods to Ukraine in 2024, while Ukrainian data show only $7 billion. The $14.2 billion figure includes re-exports – goods from other EU countries delivered to Ukraine through Polish warehouses or logistics hubs.

4. Advantages of operating a logistics hub. Export and transit of Ukrainian goods create demand for transportation and warehousing infrastructure in Poland, as well as for related services.
5. Trade advantage. Due to geographical proximity and established business ties, Poland gains a trade advantage, especially when Ukraine urgently needs energy resources, goods, or equipment. Also, Ukrainian raw materials are processed in Poland and go to the European market.

If in the last 10-15 years the Polish economy had not received a “boost” in the form of labor migrants and refugees from Ukraine working in the country, the country would probably not have been able to achieve the current level of economic growth. To give an example: in 2022 and 2024, the Polish economy grew by 5.3% y/y and 2.9% y/y respectively, while the EU economy grew by 3.6% y/y and 1% y/y in the same periods. In 2025, Poland’s GDP exceeded $1 trillion, making it the 20th largest economy in the world and paving the way for its eventual entry into the G20. These successes would not have been possible without Ukraine’s contribution.

In the long term, Polish companies may benefit from geographical proximity and established business ties to participate in Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction projects.

However, growing protectionist sentiments and political rhetoric against Ukrainian integration into the EU indicate a shift from strategic partnership to pragmatic use of the situation. This poses risks for both economies and emphasizes the need to diversify Ukrainian trade routes and economic ties.

Source: https://gmk.center