The World Bank Group, together with the European Commission, the United Nations, and the Government of Ukraine, released the updated Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA5) on February 23. As of December 31, 2025, the total cost of reconstruction is estimated at $588 billion over the next 10 years — compared to $524 billion in the previous assessment (RDNA4, February 2025).

According to the authors, recovery needs are now nearly three times higher than Ukraine’s projected nominal GDP for 2025.

Key RDNA5 Figures

• Assessment period: February 2022 – December 2025 (46 months of full-scale war).
• Direct damage: over $195 billion (vs. $176 billion in RDNA4).
• Housing: 14% of the housing stock damaged or destroyed — affecting more than 3 million households.
• Energy: the number of damaged or destroyed facilities increased by approximately 21%, including generation, transmission, distribution, and district heating infrastructure.
• Transport: needs increased by around 24% due to attacks on railways and ports in 2025.
• Demining and debris removal: nearly $28 billion.

Largest Long-Term Needs (10 Years)

• Transport — over $96 billion
• Energy — nearly $91 billion
• Housing sector — around $90 billion
• Trade and industry — over $63 billion
• Agriculture — over $55 billion

The report separately highlights the scale of required investments in modernization and the “green” transformation of infrastructure in line with EU standards.

Plans for 2026

The government plans to implement priority recovery programs exceeding $15 billion, including compensation for destroyed housing, demining, and multi-sector economic support.

Since February 2022, at least $20 billion has already been financed for emergency repairs and early recovery measures in housing, energy, education, and transport sectors.

Role of the Private Sector

The report emphasizes that unlocking the full potential of private capital depends on improving the business climate, access to financing, strengthening competition, and harmonizing standards with EU regulations.

The authors of RDNA5 also stress the importance of refugee return, veteran reintegration, and increasing female labor force participation as key drivers of long-term economic growth.

Ukraine’s reconstruction needs assessment has increased each year:

• 2023 — $411 billion
• 2024 — $486 billion
• Early 2025 — $524 billion
• End of 2025 (RDNA5) — $588 billion

Investor Analysis: Where $588 Billion Translates into Opportunity

The $588 billion estimate represents not only the scale of destruction, but also a 10-year investment cycle for Ukraine. A closer look at the RDNA5 structure highlights several sectors with differing risk profiles and economic multipliers.

1. Transport ($96+ billion) — Long Infrastructure Cycle

The largest category of needs, covering railways, ports, highways, and logistics hubs.

Investment logic: Capital-intensive projects with long horizons, but high strategic value for the EU (agricultural exports, metals, transit). Potential structures include concessions, public-private partnerships (PPP), infrastructure funds, and blended finance with international financial institutions.

Multiplier: High — logistics directly impacts GDP, exports, and foreign currency revenues.

2. Energy ($91 billion) — Fastest Investment Impact

The sector with the highest capital turnover speed.

Includes gas-fired flexible generation, renewables, distributed generation, grid modernization, and district heating.

Investment logic: Ukraine is shifting toward a decentralized energy system model. This implies smaller ticket sizes, shorter implementation cycles, and faster cash flow generation.

Multiplier: Very high — stable energy supply is a prerequisite for industrial recovery.

3. Housing ($90 billion) — Socially Guaranteed Demand

Fourteen percent of housing stock has been damaged or destroyed, affecting more than 3 million households.

Investment logic: State compensation programs, mortgage mechanisms, integrated development projects, industrial and modular construction.

This is a sector with strong state backing and stable demand.

Multiplier: Medium to high (building materials, development, local employment).

4. Industry and Trade ($63 billion) — Entry Point for Private Capital

This segment offers significant room for private equity, M&A, and joint ventures with international corporations.

Industrial recovery implies not only reconstruction but modernization in line with EU standards.

Multiplier: High in the long term, particularly in export-oriented sectors.

5. Agriculture ($55+ billion) — Recovery and Scaling

Ukraine remains one of the world’s key agricultural exporters.

Key areas: irrigation, grain storage, logistics, processing.

Investment logic: The agricultural sector offers relatively transparent economics and access to foreign currency revenues.

Multiplier: Stable, with faster capital turnover compared to large-scale infrastructure.

Separate Track: Demining ($28 billion)

This is not a conventional investment category, but a prerequisite for activating other sectors. Potential lies in technology, defense-related solutions, and international grant programs.

Conclusion

The $588 billion estimate represents not a one-time figure, but a 10-year investment cycle that:

• will combine public funding, international financial institutions, and private capital;
• will require continued business climate reforms;
• will be synchronized with Ukraine’s EU integration process.

For investors, this implies:

1. Lower risk + stable cash flow: energy, housing.
2. Medium risk + strategic value: transport infrastructure.
3. Higher risk + maximum upside: industry, M&A, greenfield projects.

Source: https://inventure.com.ua