The World Bank (WB) has increased the growth forecast of Ukraine’s gross domestic product in 2023 from 2.1% to 3.3%.
Expectations for 2022 have also improved – falling 35% from the previous forecast of 45.1%. In addition, the published GDP estimate for 2024 is 4.1% growth.
“Growth is expected to resume in 2023, but remain weak, and recovery efforts will gain momentum towards the end of the forecast period,” the report said.
The bank expects the consequences of the war will be felt beyond the short term, as economic activity will be undermined by the destruction of productive capacity, damage to arable land and reduction in labor supply, particularly if refugees do not return.
“This becomes increasingly likely as the war becomes more dangerous and protracted, and as refugees settle into their host countries,” the WB expects.
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) worsened the forecast for the growth of Ukraine’s economy in 2023 from the previously expected 25% to 8%. Expectations regarding the drop in the country’s GDP in 2022 remained at the same level – 30%.
Also, the Ministry of Economy predicts the stabilization and growth of Ukraine’s economy in 2023 by 15.5%, depending on the course of war started by Russia. In 2022, the country’s economy will fall by 30%, the agency expects.
Also, the National Bank of Ukraine predicts a 33% decline in the country’s economy by the end of 2022 and a subsequent recovery by 5-6% in 2023-2024, subject to the completion of the active phase of the war and the unblocking of the Black Sea ports.