In 2022/23 MY Ukraine will enter the TOP-10 world producers of basic grain crops. However, its share in total production may decrease from 4% to 2%, which will be primarily due to the reduction of sown areas under cereals due to the impossibility of a full-fledged sowing campaign in areas where active hostilities are taking place.
This was reported by analysts at APK-Inform with reference to USDA data.
It is noted that Ukraine plays an important role in world production of wheat, corn and barley, as well as in their exports. Thus, in 2021/22 MY, the country’s share in the world harvest of wheat was 4%, barley – 7% and corn – 3% (USDA data).
According to analysts, in 2022/23 MY grain harvest is projected at 48.3 million tons, which is 44% lower than the current season. Thus, the gross harvest of wheat is expected to decrease by 47% (up to 17.1 million tons), barley – by 47% (up to 5 million tons), corn – by 40% (up to 25.2 million tons) compared to the 2021/22 season.
At the same time, exports of wheat are estimated at 12.3 million tons (-35% of the forecast for 2021/22 MY), barley – 1.2 million tons (-79%) and corn – 25.7 million tons (+ 22%) due to high transitional balances at the end of 2021/22 MY against the background of lack of conditions for the full realization of its export potential.