The monthly survey of industrial enterprises “Ukrainian Business during the War” is conducted by the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER).

During the fiftieth wave of the survey, responses were received from 471 respondents. Those surveyed were predominantly industrial enterprises (87%), located in 21 of Ukraine’s 27 regions, namely in Vinnytsia, Volyn, Dnipropetrovsk, Zhytomyr, Zakarpattia, Zaporizhzhia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Lviv, Odesa, Poltava, Rivne, Sumy, Ternopil, Kharkiv, Khmelnytskyi, Cherkasy, Chernivtsi and Chernihiv oblasts and in the city of Kyiv.

Among those surveyed, enterprises of all sizes by number of employees are represented.

Brief overview of the results

In June 2026, business sentiment stabilised and improved somewhat: in particular, long-term uncertainty declined, the month-on-month dynamics of enterprise performance indicators recovered, and short-term expectations stopped deteriorating. The main challenges for business are the labour shortage, price growth and security risks.

In June, long-term uncertainty decreased. At the same time, businesses’ long-term expectations also decreased, albeit insignificantly.

Medium-term uncertainty has shown no significant changes for three consecutive months, both for the general economic environment and for the financial and economic situation at the enterprise.

Expectations for the six-month horizon also do not change significantly.

Year-on-year recovery rates improved insignificantly after a two-month deterioration in values.

The performance indicators of industrial enterprises (month on the previous month) improved significantly after last month’s deterioration. Short-term expectations interrupted the deteriorating trend and did not change significantly.

The trend towards a slowdown in the rate of price growth over the next 3–4 months persists; however, the importance of price growth as an obstacle to business development retains its significance.

No significant changes are expected in the number of employees or in the number of employees on forced leave over the next 3–4 months; at the same time, the indicator of difficulties in finding both skilled and unskilled personnel decreased significantly.

The leading obstacles to business operations remain the labour shortage, price growth and occupational safety, with minor changes in the percentage distribution.

Output

The growth rate of output accelerated again: the index of changes in production increased significantly in June, from 0.08 to 0.15.

Expectations for the next three months interrupted the two-month deteriorating trend. The value of the index of expected changes in output did not change significantly in June and stands at 0.27 (it was 0.25).

The value of the aggregate indicator of industry prospects interrupted the two-month deteriorating trend; the indicator did not change significantly in June compared with May and stands at 0.07 (it was 0.06).

Prices

The rate of price growth has maintained a slowing trend for three consecutive months. A further slowdown in values is expected over the next three months. The index of changes in prices for raw materials and supplies did not change significantly in June and stands at 0.37 (it was 0.36). The index of expected changes in prices for raw materials and supplies has been gradually decreasing for three consecutive months and stands at 0.39 (it was 0.41).

The index of changes in prices for finished products interrupted the three-month trend of gradual decrease: in June, compared with May, it grew insignificantly, from 0.34 to 0.36. The index of expected changes in prices for finished products decreased from 0.40 to 0.38.

Provision with orders

In June 2026, the average period of provision with new orders for the surveyed enterprises changed compared with the previous month and amounted, on average, to 2.8 months.

The share of industrial enterprises with orders for a year or more is 5%. At the same time, the share of enterprises that have orders for no more than 2 months amounted to 65%.

Obstacles to doing business during the war

In June 2026, the most acute obstacle for business caused by the full-scale Russian invasion was the labour shortage resulting from the conscription or departure of employees — 71%.

Second place in the ranking of obstacles to business caused by the full-scale war was taken by the problem of rising prices for raw materials and supplies — 50%.

The problem of occupational safety took third place and stands at 41%.

Exporting enterprises

The growth rate of exports, like other production indicators, also accelerated. The value of the index of changes in exports increased again after the decrease in May, from 0.07 to 0.16. The share of respondents whose export volumes contracted decreased insignificantly, from 17.6% to 14.5%. At the same time, the share of enterprises that increased their exports rose from 20% to 27.4%. The share of enterprises whose export volumes remained unchanged decreased from 62.4% to 58.1%.

Source: https://business.diia.gov.ua